Monday, January 18, 2010
Why My Gut says the Polls are Wrong
Today I witnessed a completely anecdotal event that lends credence to my notion that Coakley will stun the pollsters tomorrow. One of my employees, who had not voted in several cycles, received a phone call from her mother "ordering" her to cast a ballot tomorrow for Martha Coakley. Mind you that this woman last voted with Bill Clinton in office, but tomorrow will vote for Martha.
What I suspect, although I have no real evidence, is that most of the polling outfits are weighting their polls based on "likely voter" numbers that are at least a few days, if not a week or two, old. If so, this a fatal flaw. The "likely voter" numbers are shifting as we speak.
It is my belief that everybody who is going to vote for Scott Brown was well motivated by the end of last week, when the latest round of polling began. I find it truly difficult to believe that there has been a huge defection of likely Coakley voters in just the past few days, which is what most of the polls seem to be suggesting.
Instead, I believe that the percentage of Coakley voters has increased dramatically in the past 72 hours, which is not reflected in the wieghting of the most recent polls.
We saw a similar situation in the NY 23 congressional race, where the final polls failed to predict a large turnout of the Anti-Anti vote. The establishment majority freaked out at the last minute when the polls said the arch-conservative tea-bag-backed candidate was going to win huge, and the Dem won instead.
I am seeing and sensing a lot of that "freak out" among Massachusetts voters who probably would not have voted tomorrow if the polls showed Martha ahead.
That said, I am not confident, not at all, about this race. But I am not pessimistic either. I'll be up late.
**** Sub prediction - Should Coakley pull it off, look for the wacko-right wing to start gnashing their teeth about voter fraud, ACORN, the SEIU, etc... It will be very ugly.
¶ 7:11 PM
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I believe you are right, talking with my sister in Hadley and she said the same thing. Were Coakly ahead by 8 or 9 points sheand her husband probobly would not have voted. She in concerned about Mass. being an embarrasment to the memory of Ted Kennedy.
**** Whereas in a close race when the Republican wins, we all know the Democrats would never stoop to gnashing their teeth, claiming fraud, or calling the Supreme Court corrupt.
I got it pretty much backwards. Wishful thinking on my part to keep the troops motivated.
As for the fraud accusations, there was a minor pattern 5 filled out ballots in various parts of the state. If the Coakley Camp did not not acknowledge them, they would be potentially guilty of political incompetence, which they obviously are guilty of anyways.
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As for the fraud accusations, there was a minor pattern 5 filled out ballots in various parts of the state. If the Coakley Camp did not not acknowledge them, they would be potentially guilty of political incompetence, which they obviously are guilty of anyways.
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