Greg Roach's Berkshires Blog: Tracking Polls

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Tracking Polls

It seems that some organization, most likely the Barrett Campaign, is running a tracking poll, which explains why these recent spate of polling calls has been asking for people by name (a bad idea in a small town for obvious reasons).

The purpose of a tracking poll is to see how opinion is changing. It is rarely used by those who expect things to remain static.

The first call came last summer and seemingly was the baseline poll - Where the race begins from a polling perspective.
The second call came the night after the debate - Did the candidates change anyone's mind?
The third call came the day a large mass mailing from Mayor Barrett landed in the mailboxes.

In my opinion, this pattern makes it clear who is behind in his own internal polls. Look for the "Hail Mary" campaign tactics to start soon.

¶ 6:27 PM

Comments:

i know that jb3 has a lot of supporters on south church st.....there is a sign heading south on the lawn of the house next to the cemetery...it looks like it is suggesting that the residents of southview cemetery will be voting for jb3...

ctrem

# posted by

Anonymous : 8:08 PM

I think polls are obsolete. People have learned they can easily skew the results.

If a candidate changes a position they have based on polling data, as H did with her immediate switch to a "change" candidate after the NH primary, are they really someone you should vote for?

# posted by

CJ : 9:30 AM

What I don't get is the timing of the polls. He did the first on the Thursday after the debate... before anyone even saw it on TV. This poll was done before some people even got home and opened their mailboxes.

I just don't get it, how do you expect to get good data out of this.

Next, I've been wondering how much cash that the Mayor has... this all has to be costing a lot.

And, for some reason, he hasn't sent me either of the mailers... huh.

# posted by

Editor : 3:31 PM