Sunday, September 14, 2008
1 out of 20
Here's a quick exercise to help people quantify the tiny shifts in the electorate that will decide the Presidential election:
Imagine that there are only 20 voters in the country and they all happen to be people you know reasonably well. For argument's sake, lets say that they are pretty evenly dispersed across the ideological spectrum with a few dead smack in the middle who could go either way in Presidential elections. You know the type of voter I am talking about.
If 10 of them like Obama and 10 like McCain, it is obviously a 50/50 split.
But if just one of the those in the middle of the spectrum switches, it is all of a sudden on changes his/her mind, it is 55/45, - a 10 point win!!!
So basically we are talking about fewer than 1 in 20 voters that will decide this election. It is probably more like one in 50.
If you know someone who is still making up their mind or wavering...... that is your chance to make a difference. Think of 20 friends, then find the one who has yet to make up their mind. You know who I am talking about.
You can make a difference.
UPDATE: A reader writes to remind us that not only do current voters play into this equation, but new voters as well. If you know someone who is NOT registered to vote, kick them in the butt. If they don't want to go to city hall, they can go here. ¶ 8:57 PM
Imagine that there are only 20 voters in the country and they all happen to be people you know reasonably well. For argument's sake, lets say that they are pretty evenly dispersed across the ideological spectrum with a few dead smack in the middle who could go either way in Presidential elections. You know the type of voter I am talking about.
If 10 of them like Obama and 10 like McCain, it is obviously a 50/50 split.
But if just one of the those in the middle of the spectrum switches, it is all of a sudden on changes his/her mind, it is 55/45, - a 10 point win!!!
So basically we are talking about fewer than 1 in 20 voters that will decide this election. It is probably more like one in 50.
If you know someone who is still making up their mind or wavering...... that is your chance to make a difference. Think of 20 friends, then find the one who has yet to make up their mind. You know who I am talking about.
You can make a difference.
UPDATE: A reader writes to remind us that not only do current voters play into this equation, but new voters as well. If you know someone who is NOT registered to vote, kick them in the butt. If they don't want to go to city hall, they can go here. ¶ 8:57 PM
