Greg Roach's Berkshires Blog
Thursday, April 19, 2007
  The day the GOP lost all hope of winning in '08

My personal views on the issue are unimportant, but it is very clear that short of a major faux-pas or a major unforeseen event that reshapes the playing field (i.e. nukes in D.C. or L.A.) that the GOP has just jumped the shark with swing voters on the social issues. The overwhelming majority of the independent voters in the US label themselves as pro-choice and they ain't gonna' be votin' Republican.

Alito will be the last hard-line conservative nominated to the SCOTUS for at least a decade, if not longer.
I will be thrilled if this horrible decision by the Supreme Court helps to ensure a Democratic President in the '08 election. We need to re-balance the court, and the next President may well have two appointments during his term.

I am appalled that the Court chose to come out against 2nd term abortions that are used as a medical necessity. Does anyone think that if there was a case where a man's body was involved, and it came to the point where it was the medical community or the government making decisions about medical care for him that the Courts would rule in favor of governmental legislation?
I'm in favor of legal abortion, and think that overturning Roe vs. Wade would help Democrats, but I don't see how this decision is a gimme for Democrats:

1) This is one case where the right's preferred terminology is the more popular ("partial birth abortion" versus "intact dilation & extraction").

2) Most people, at least in polls as I recall them, say they back such a law.

3) Harry Reid voted for the law whose upholding he now declares extreme. As long as he is the Senate Majority Leader, the issue cannot be successfully used by the Democrats to nationalize the election to their favor.

That said, the decision does increase motivation among Democratic activists and primary voters, and probably does make it harder for Hillary to straddle on the issue.

I agree the Democrats are somewhat favored for President in 2008. (I would bet on them at even money, not at 3-to-2.)
In 2008 the potential SCOTUS nominations will play a huge role in the election. Short of someone like Guilianni promising to appoint pro Roe justices, the GOP will suffer a swing of several points on this issue alone. Keep it on your radar.

Iraq will probably still be the biggest issue. I can't see how it won't be.

It is the Dem's race to lose.
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